Enchant grant probability simulator
Calculates the expected value of the Enchant acquisition.
Please enter the following information.
Calculation Results :
Expected number of pieces obtained : {{ sumAverage }} [Unit]
Probability of obtaining 1 or more : {{ sumProbability }} [%]
Number of fairy sewing tools needed for expectation 1 : {{ needNumYose }} [Unit]
In that case, the number of Orb : {{ needNumShizukudama }} [Orb]
Money needed in that case (Orb=81 yen) : {{ needNumJapaneseYen }} [yen]
Details
Therefore, one fairy sewing tool will give an expected value of 1.75.
The above calculations are based on this.
Data Providers and Sample Size
Probabilities are calculated from the results of 10,000 fairy sewing tools provided by SARA on Tuesday, 5/9/2023 via Twitter.
SARA's contribution
The total sample size is 17344, but there are 38 different 10-step levels, probably all with the same probability, so it is equivalent to just under 660,000 trials in effect.
Five levels have nine types, which is equivalent to just under 160,000 attempts, and three levels have 29 types, which is equivalent to just over 500,000 attempts.
Therefore, we believe that the sample size is sufficiently large and credible.